It’s been an interesting week 11 in the NFL, especially for my picks that couldn’t have had more ups and downs.
Justin Fields reverted to his old ways of fighting the Ravens and then suffered what appears to be broken ribs. That gave way to Andy Dalton to have a decent day in limited action (16.04 points). Russell Wilson struggled to the tune of a fantastic 8.5 points after hoping he would be a solid pivot of popular picks like Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott, but even they struggled this week, scoring 7.5 and 2.6 points respectively. .
Of course, if you’ve drafted any of Trevor Siemian, Colt McCoy, Taylor Heinicke, or Joe Flacco, you’ve had a pretty productive day as a quarterback as they all finished in the top 12 over the course of a particularly disgusting week for the quarterbacks.
CeeDee Lamb suffered a concussion and finished with just a fantastic 2.9 points, and DeAndre Hopkins, after believing earlier in the week that he could play, was sent off for his third straight game.
It’s time to move on and forget about a lean week. Drowning our sorrows in the turkey and gravy will help, but also make sure you have plenty of drinks on hand for when the Lions enter the field.
It’s week 12 and Thanksgiving. Let’s go take it over!
Week 12 Variance and Over / Under
- Indianapolis (+3) vs. Tampa Bay – O / U 51.5
- Denver (+2.5) v Los Angeles Chargers – O / U 48
- San Francisco (-3.5) vs. Minnesota – O / U 48
- Green Bay (-1) vs. Los Angeles Rams – O / U 47.5
- Jacksonville (+1) vs. Atlanta – O / U 47
- New York Giants (+4) vs. Philadelphia – O / U 46
- Cincinnati (-4.5) vs. Pittsburgh – O / U 45
- New England (-1.5) v Tennessee – O / U 44.5
- Houston (-2.5) v New York Jets – O / U 44
Joe terrier, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow has been in kind of funk for the past couple of weeks. After a hot start to the season in which he averaged more than two touchdown passes per game in the first eight weeks, Burrow has thrown just one touchdown in his last two games while returning the ball. thrice.
He’s averaged just 9.3 Fantastic points per game over that span, but now he gets a Steelers defense that sits in the middle of 18th overall in Fantastic points allowed in quarterbacks. Burrow faced the Steelers in Week 3, in a game the Bengals won 24-10. While he only threw for 172 yards in the game, Burrow also managed to throw for three goals and finished the day with a fantastic 18.58 points.
The Steelers are allowing 240.7 passing yards per game and 1.50 touchdown passes per game. Anchored to an elite receiving corps including Ja’Marr Chase (47/867/8) and Tee Higgins (37/446/2), Burrow could be in line for a well-deserved rebound day at home against Pittsburgh.
Our ranking projects Burrow as the 11th quarterback of the weekend with 17.1 points. We’re also projecting him as having the fifth easiest quarterback clash on the weekend.
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Foals
If you wanted to make the big dogs disappear on the slate, Carson Wentz could make an interesting play against the Buccaneers.
The Buccaneers give the 15th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Wentz has played surprisingly well for a guy whose time was exhausted in Philadelphia.
Despite being known as a rollover quarterback, Wentz has just six turnovers this season and three interceptions for 18 touchdowns. The bet on Wentz is that the Colts look very good at beating the ball with Jonathan Taylor, as Wentz has only thrown one touchdown pass in the past two weeks. The Colts won those two games, but even in a resounding victory over Buffalo last week, he was asked to pitch just 20 times, while Taylor scored 32 times for 185 yards and four touchdowns.
Indianapolis may have to lean a bit more on Wentz in this one, as the Colts are currently four-point underdogs compared to the Bucs. Tampa Bay is allowing 243.7 passing yards per game and 1.80 touchdown passes per game. Our ranking projects Wentz as the overall QB14 of the weekend with a fantastic 17.0 points. It doesn’t come without risk, as it should have the 11th toughest game of the weekend, but in a game where the Colts are underdogs, and which should be the best score on the slate, there could be an advantage. to be had by catching Wentz late.
James robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars offense has been incredibly disappointing under the number. 1st overall draft pick Trevor Lawrence and new head coach Urban Meyer. That being said, one of Jacksonville’s only bright spots is James Robinson, who is the overall RB17 in fantastic points per game (14.2)
Robinson is five weeks in the top-12 of the season, averaging 81.89 yards of scrimmage per game, as well as 0.78 touchdowns per game.
Now he’s getting what could be a generous clash against a Falcons defense that grants the fourth most fantastic points per game to opposing backers and the eighth most rushing yards per game (123.3) .
Robinson shouldn’t be hard to acquire in your draft, as the Underdogs’ ranking system projects him like the RB8 on the slate with 14.4 fantasy points. Our standings project him slightly higher at 15.6 points, with 98.3 total yards thrown.
Broncos Ball carriers
I’m getting rid of that one a bit by largely suggesting that Bronco return as a viable game for this week. Denver has shared the backfield touches all season between Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, but that should be treated as a low buy situation in your draft rather than one to be avoided.
Williams is averaging 65 yards from scrum per game with 12.7 touches per game, while Gordon is averaging 67.3 yards from scrum and 13.9 touches per game. Where the fantastic production stands out is in touchdowns, as Gordon has seven over the season against two for Williams.
The reason either of those full-backs is worth the bet is that this weekend they get a Chargers defense that allows a record 145.1 rushing yards per game, and the ninth more points. fantastic for opposing backers. Our ranking correctly reflects the split between Gordon and Williams, as we placed them in the 23rd and 24th best RBs of the weekend, with Gordon occupying the ranking just above 10.7 points (Williams is predicted for 10.5).
If I run multiple queues in the tournament, a steady dose of both fullbacks would be worth it. However, if I only play a handful of rosters, I would go all or nothing on Gordon, given his touchdown totals and overall work in the red zone this season compared to Williams.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Few players have blown up the 2021 season’s cover as much as Deebo Samuel. Now in good health, Samuel had 955 receiving yards this season and five touchdowns on 55 receptions and also rushed 19 times for 137 yards and three touchdowns.
Last weekend against the Jaguars, Samuel was used as an extension of the running game with running back Elijah Mitchell, as he led the 49ers with 79 rushing yards in eight carries and found the end zone for his second consecutive game with a touchdown.
This weekend, Samuel has the chance to add to his impressive start against a Minnesota Vikings defense that grants the third most fantastic points to opposing receivers and 251.9 passing yards per game (12th over) .
When it comes to wide receivers, the Vikings are giving up 222.4 passing yards per game alone, which ranks as the most in the league as the Vikings cornerbacks have struggled all season to contain the passing game.
Our ranking projects Samuel as WR2 on the weekend with 18.7 fantasy points, while Underdog’s ranking has it as WR3 with 15.1. Samuel has a target of 30% on the season that ranks third in the NFL, if he runs into you in the first round of the draft this week I’m happy to pick it up as often as possible.
Mike evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans can’t help but enjoy one productive fantasy week after another. Even in his declining weeks, Evans tends to find a way to end with a decent week, having finished in the top 24 receivers in six of his ten games this season.
Evans has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games, and that includes games in which he’s only seen three and four targets against the Saints and the football team.
Last weekend against the Giants, Evans saw 11 targets, a high for the team, and finished with a 6/73/1 receiving line and fantastic 16.3 points. As mentioned earlier, Sunday’s game against the Colts is the highest projected total on the slate at 51.5. The Colts are also giving up the fifth most fantastic points per game to wide receivers, which could further strengthen Evans’ case in a high-scoring affair.
Evans is the WR6 projected on Underdog fantasy with 13.4 points. Our projections have Evans forecast for 14.0 points on the weekend.
Kyle pitts, Atlanta Falcons
With no Travis Kelce, Darren Waller or Mark Andrews on this weekend’s slate, there could be an added advantage to catching an elite tight end early.
Among the tight ends of this weekend’s Battle Royale Slate, Pitts ranks second with a 20% target share (Kittle 23% target share). Pitts has had an elite start this season, receiving 43 receptions for 635 yards and a touchdown. It’s his lack of touchdowns that really keeps Pitts from having an elite fantasy season, ranking as the overall TE7 with 9.1 fantasy points per game.
Jacksonville is allowing the 13th most fantastic runs to tight ends this season, but also allowing the 12th most yards per game to post (57.0).
Our leaderboard projects Pitts as having the ninth easiest game of Week 12 and projects him for 10.3 fantasy points.
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers
Since losing JuJu Smith to Schuster to a late season injury in Week 5, Pat Freiermuth has seen his goals and overall fantastic production increase.
As of Week 6, Freiermuth has averaged 7.2 targets per game to go with five receptions per game and 37.4 receiving yards. He also averaged 10.6 fantasy points per game during this time frame (TE5) and is becoming a staple for fantasy managers who signed him up.
Even in last week’s disappointing performance against the Chargers, in which he caught four passes for 11 yards and a touchdown, Freiermuth still finished with a fantastic 9.1 points (TE12). Freiermuth saw seven more targets that day, despite his poor receiving totals, but could be in line for a boost over the coming week.
Tight end Eric Ebron has been ruled out for an undisclosed period and could undergo knee surgery, which should only increase opportunities for Freiermuth. Our ranking projects Freiermuth as the overall TE12 of the weekend with 8.0 fantasy points.