If you thought the first round of exemptions Week 6 had to offer was bad, then you’re up for a doozy this Week 7. If you’re one of the many well-adjusted human beings hanging out on Twitter Fantasy Football, so I imagine mid-Sunday afternoon you might log in to find half the tilt space on their Duct list taped off by Chris Moore and Le’Veon Bell fell flat on his face.
Hope it’s not that bad, but it’s not pretty.
Week 7 leaves us without six teams on the slate. The Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, Jaguars, Vikings and Steelers are all gone. This means that four of the top 12 QBs in fantastic points per game are out, and Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson will miss his second game in a row, leaving us technically without five top 12 QBs as Wilson is the current QB12. in points per game. with 19.7.
Last weekend’s $ 12,000 grand prize winner sailed the Week 6 byes with a Cardinals mini-stack featuring Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins against the Browns, and solidified his roster with Jonathan Taylor against the Texans. They also had Cooper Kupp and CeeDee Lamb who had 61.1 points, and Noah Fant had his best game of the season with a fantastic 20.2 points. They finished with 154.36 points in total.
This weekend’s tournament features 11 games on the slate. So let’s go through this difficult series of games and see what we can do and who we should look to in the hope of coming out on top.
Weekly distribution and over / under
- Titans (+4.5) vs Chiefs – O / U 57.5
- Los Angeles Rams (-16) v Detroit – O / U 50
- Green Bay (-10) vs. Washington – O / U 49
- Las Vegas (-3) vs. Philadelphia – O / U 48.5
- Miami (-1) v Atlanta – O / U 47.5
- Tampa Bay (-13) vs. Chicago – O / U 47
- Arizona (-17) vs. Houston – O / U 47
- Baltimore (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati – O / U 46.5
- San Francisco (-4) vs. Indianapolis – O / U 44
Aaron Rodgers, Baie Verte Packers
Considering the number of top quarterbacks that are down this week, it looks like a good week to be at the start of the quarterback in your draft. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray all look like solid starts against underwhelming defenses in games that have good totals.
However, if you wanted to knock out the quarterback a bit later, and still land on an elite option, then you might consider Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers is the current QB15 in fantastic points per game at 19.0, but faces a Washington defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks the most fantastic points per game in the past five weeks. In that span, a single quarterback has not thrown more than 30 fantastic points (Patrick Mahomes 22.95 in week 6).
Over the course of the year, Rodgers averages two touchdown passes per game and attempts 31 assists per game.
Our ranking projects Rodgers as the overall QB7 of the week with 19.9 points. Underdog also projects him as QB7, but with 21.5 points. In a format where only six quarters are taken, Rodgers could land at or near the end of your draft.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami dolphins
The Dolphins vs Falcons game has one of the highest projected totals on the slate, and Tua would be a very contrarian game if you opted to get weird in Week 7. If there was a week there. to get weird, that’s definitely the one. to do it.
Coming back from injury last week against the Jaguars, Tua had a fantastic 22.36 points thanks in part to his 329 passing yards and two touchdowns on 47 attempts. For a game that has been competitive throughout and only featured 43 points combined, Tua tossing the ball 47 times seems a bit unexpected.
The sophomore is averaging 12.69 points this season, but that takes into account Week 2 against Buffalo in which he came out injured after attempting just four assists. If you remove the week from Buffalo, Tua is averaging 18.8 points per game. Derek Carr is currently QB13 on points per game at 18.8.
This game could turn into a shootout, as the Dolphins and Falcons are two of the worst teams in the league to defend against the pass.
Darrell henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Truth be told, there is no turning back to this slate, or any slate in the future, more valuable than Derrick Henry. Even in a game against the Chiefs that could feature a negative play scenario, the Titans appear fully determined to win the game with Henry through thick and thin.
That being said, among the running backs on the roster who isn’t named Derrick Henry, Rams running back Darrell Henderson looks to be getting a particularly strong game this week against the Lions.
Over the year, Henderson is the overall RB7 in points per game (17.0) and has the easiest game on the slate according to our ranking of running back half-PPRs.
In his last three games, Henderson is averaging 18.1 points and has found the end zone in each of the last two games. He scored once on the ground and once in the air last week against the Giants.
Henderson sees work in both the running and the passing game, averaging 16.2 carries and 74.4 rushing yards per game to go with 2.4 receptions and 23.8 yards per game. He also averages one touchdown per game.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Aside from the more obvious choices of top running backs, the Atlanta Falcons are back from their leave, which means we can start enjoying Cordarrelle Patterson SZN again.
Patterson has emerged unexpectedly for the Falcons and fantasy managers this season, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game (RB3). He’s averaging 14.4 opportunities / gm, which includes a weekly average of 6.2 targets, five receptions and 59 receiving yards.
Between his backfield drummer colleagues Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman, Patterson appeared to be the only trustworthy one with a heavy workload. Our ranking projects Patterson as RB6 of the week with 16.5 points.
Calvin ridley, Atlanta Falcons
In the first five games of the season, Calvin Ridley hasn’t been at all what the editors hoped for when they took him to the end of the first / start of the second draft. While the volume has been there for Ridley (10.5 targets / gm), the fantastic points just haven’t been. Heading into Week 7, Ridley is the WR29 at a fantastic 11.3 points per game and has only found the end zone once this season.
That could change this weekend against the Dolphins, who allow the most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers (15.6) and 1.4 TDs per game to wide receivers.
We have already mentioned that this game could be configured to have more points than expected.
Our ranking projects Ridley as the overall WR12 of the week (12.2 points), but his cap could be as high as the overall WR1 if the volume stays and he collects everything else against Miami.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
Throughout her career, Marquise Brown has illuminated the Cincinnati Bengals. He scored in each of the three games he played against them and had two touchdowns in Week 17 of last season.
In the PPR half-score, Brown is averaging 17.1 points per game over his career against Cincinnati and is the WR8 in points per game this season at 15.9.
The Ravens have found new life in their fleeting attack of the season. Lamar Jackson averages the 10th most passing yards per game (281.0) among quarterbacks, despite being QB22 in passing attempts per game (32.3).
The Bengals allow just 240.5 passing yards per game, but faced some truly disappointing infractions in Chicago, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Detroit.
Our ranking projects Brown as the week’s overall WR14 at 12.0 points, but Brown has given us enough big games this season to know we shouldn’t be sleeping on him this year. Especially against teams he thrived against.
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals came out and acquired Zach Ertz from the Eagles last week in hopes of building up a tight body that has never been particularly strong, and then was decimated by the season-ending loss to Maxx Williams. It was a disappointing end to the season for Williams after the seven-season veteran was lost to a knee injury despite a strong 16/193/1 start to the season.
Now the Cardinals will look to use Ertz in the fold for the remainder of the season.
Ertz has had a few solid games for the Eagles over the past four weeks. He’s averaged 6.8 targets per game over that span, 37.3 yards and found the end zone twice. He wasn’t explosive, but he would still be a tight end I would be willing to rely on in a good offense, and the Cardinals have been an attacking powerhouse this season.
Ahead of his Cardinals debut, Ertz faces off against the Houston Texans, who have so far given many productive days to opposing tight ends. The Texans also allow the tightest ninth receiving yards per game at (60.8).
High level tight ends are still my favorite picks in this format. But if you were to take them out in your draft, I like Ertz when he made his Cardinals debut.
Dallas goedert, Philadelphia Cream Eagles
Zach Ertz’s departure for Arizona has created what we hope will be a huge boost for Dallas Goedert until the end of the season.
Even with Ertz in hiding, Goedert is still the TE15 in fantasy points total (41.1) and the TE13 in fantasy points per game (8.2).
Goedert performed well for fantastic purposes despite his limited volume. He averages just 3.8 targets per game and three receptions per game, but Goedert has also looked explosive, averaging 14.4 yards per reception over the year.
With Ertz more on the way, a target boon should be on the way for Goedert, which could give him as much as the top 5 upside down the rest of the way. We’ll see what that advantage looks like in Week 7 against the Raiders (assuming Goedert is taken off the COVID-19 roster), as the Raiders allow a league-high 7.6 receptions per game against opposing tight ends over the past five weeks and receiving 77.4 yards per game.